Elections do
not scare off investors argues experts
By Timothy Kitundu
The countdown to the general elections in October has started and experts
are optimistic that the elections will not have an impact on local or foreign
investments as long as Tanzania continues being transparent and democratic.
Experts predict that the elections would have a minor impact on the investments
because the third phase government has laid down a convenient legal framework of
involving all stakeholders in the process of policy formulation and law
enacting.
However, they have jointly warned that there is a possibility of a post election
impact on investments if the president elected will be an autocrat, deciding
everything individually.
Recently Hussein Kamote, an economist with the Confederation of Tanzania
Industries (CTI) was quoted by a weekly regional paper as saying that the
tendency by some businesspeople to take refuge abroad whenever general elections
approach have very little impact on the country’s investment.
According to the Ministry of Finance, all economic growth indicators are up and
more than anticipated. In the first half of the 2004/05 fiscal year a lot of
economic activities took place in all sectors, with investments taking a leading
role.
Investigations by The Express reveal that investors pay very little or no taxes
at all to established projects in Tanzania. These fiscal tax incentives are
structured according to Tanzania’s investment priorities in the lead and
priority sectors. This can further justify steady investment flow during the
election period.
The Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) Director, Investment Promotion Emmanuel Ole
Naiko commented in an interview with The Express in Dar es Salaam Tuesday on the
worries expressed by some Tanzanians that the exit of President Benjamin Mkapa
may erode the confidence of investors.
He said the investment trend in Tanzania showed a positive response. In 2000
there were 190 projects, 220 projects were recorded in 2001, while in 2002 there
were 311 projects. In 2003 a total of 371 projects were recorded while 2004 saw
450 projects registered.
Of the investment projects, according to Ole Naiko, 25 per cent are owned by
foreigners, 30 per cent in joint ventures and 45 per cent are locally owned.
Ole Naiko argued that the coming general elections would have little or no
impact on investments because all economic changes are not done by the president
alone, rather all stakeholders are involved.
For an impact to be felt there must be an apparent change of either policies or
legislations without the prior involvement of all stakeholders, which for
Tanzania as a democratic country is almost impossible, he said.
“Since President Mkapa came to power in 1995, he has been collaborating with all
stakeholders both internal and external … good examples are the mining policies,
the Investment Act which did not just mushroom but stakeholders were involved in
putting them in place,” he said.
He added that the Tanzania Investment Act was a result of intensive research
carried out by the Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) under the
support of USAID which has given way to the Investors Roadmap followed by the
Cabinet Paper hence the Investment Policy and Act.
“The Land Act of 1999 followed the same process. Stakeholders were involved;
there was a two year-debate while the policy was ready in 1997, followed by the
amendment in 2004,” he said.
According to Ole Naiko, the economic reforms spearheaded by President Mkapa also
illustrate that they were not undertaken by the president alone, rather all
stakeholders were involved. The 2000 CCM election manifesto clearly states that
the policy is to have a free market that is monitored.
The possibility of an impact by the election is minor, thinks Ole Naiko, because
if a new party comes into power, the laws and policies cannot be changed outside
the legal framework with which they were put in place.
Tanzania has no record of unrest therefore in case of leadership change, peace
will prevail hence no impact will be felt on investments. If CCM comes back to
power, it will be even more difficult to undo what has been put in place by the
stakeholders, argued Ole Naiko.
In his comments, Dr. Michael Ndanshau, Senior Lecturer and Head of Department of
Economics at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM) acknowledged that it is a
common phenomenon that when elections are approaching, people start speculating
negatively.
People feel uncertain; not knowing if the new president would stand by the
policies of his predecessor, if he would come from CCM or the opposition.
But Ndanshau thinks the October elections will cause little if any changes in
the country.
“Basically, it is clear that the coming president will be from CCM, that is a
fact that will restore the confidence of the investors hence the elections will
have a minor impact on the sector,” he said.
Dr. Ndanshau told The Express that, if the next president comes from the
opposition, Tanzania will have taken a step backwards as the opposition is still
unprepared to take power. This is seen by their unnecessary criticisms of
policies such as privatization.
“The credibility of their policies is still questionable but their coming to
power might have an impact, this will prompt investors to move their investments
to other countries because for the time being Tanzania is getting more FDIs
because of the country’s stability,” he said.
He cited the example of the CCM/CUF tussle in Zanzibar which prompted donors to
cut off all support in the form of loans and grants because they knew that with
the conflicts, grants would not have been properly utilised.
He further said that it was not easy for a new government to do away with
policies but they can be reviewed or modified.
“As a result of Tanzania’s good policy implementation plans and confidence in
the government, the country has forged forward compared to for example Kenya in
terms of infrastructure, roads and internet communications which have penetrated
to remote areas,” he said.
He said, as an indication of confidence in the government, the national economic
growth is climbing; the inflation rate has declined although the problem remains
in the equitable distribution which will be gradually achieved.
Capital flight, which according to Dr. Ndanshau indicates if investors have no
confidence with the government in power, rarely takes place in Tanzania before
or after the elections. Capital flight occurs if the prevailing or coming
government is not trusted by investors.
African
unemployment rising, global unemployment falling
By Timothy Kitundu
Despite robust economic growth, the global employment situation
improved slightly in 2004, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has
revealed in its annual Global Employment Trends report. However, in sub-Saharan
Africa, unemployment edged up slightly from 10.0 per cent to 10.1 per cent
despite a 4.4 per cent GDP growth rate registered in 2004.
The report availed to The Express over the weekend by ILO Dar es Salaam Office
says that while unemployment worldwide declined from 6.3 per cent to 6.1 per
cent, or from 185.2 million in 2003 to 184.7 million in 2004, unemployment in
Europe and Central Asia remained unchanged.
The ILO said that last year’ trend marked the first time since 2000 that
year-over-year global unemployment decreased and was only the second decrease
since 1994.
“A robust global economic growth rate of five per cent in 2004 played a large
role in these developments,” part of the report says.
However, according to the report, the growth of global employment of 47.7
million, an increase of only 1.7 per cent in the total number of jobs worldwide,
remained disappointing and employment as a share of the working age population
stayed virtually unchanged at 61.8 per cent in 2004.
ILO Director General, Juan Somavia was quoted by the report as saying that while
any global decline in unemployment is positive, sight of the reality should be
maintained that employment creation still remain a major challenge for policy
makers.
The report points out that in addition to creating new jobs, other key
challenges facing policy makers today include eliminating decent work ‘deficits’
wherever they exist.
“Declines in unemployment rates do not in themselves indicate improvements in
decent work ‘deficits’, they are only the tip of the iceberg,” the reports says.
According to the report, the focus of policy should therefore not be on
unemployment alone, but also on conditions of work of those who are employed.
In this regard, the report addresses the challenges of improving working
conditions in the growing informal economy in many developing countries, as well
as achieving a fairer globalization and resolving the problem of high youth
unemployment.
The report also asks for urgent action to provide sufficient international aid
as rapidly as possible for reconstruction of workplaces, equipment,
infrastructure repair and workers health in areas affected by the Indian Ocean
earthquake and Tsunami.
In addition, it calls for adequate policies on HIV/AIDS in the workplace to
address the massive anticipated loss of workers to the labour market as a result
of the epidemic.
Standard
Chartered sets new records
By Timothy Kitundu
The Standard Chartered Bank Tanzania Limited has become the first bank in the
country to cross the Tsh. 200 billion mark for loans and advances portfolio.
Announcing last year’s results, the bank’s Executive Director of Finance Sanjay
Rughani said: “We are proud about the growth in our loans portfolio. Our loans
and advances crossed the Tsh. 200 billion mark and have grown by 51 per cent
compared to Tsh. 132 billion in 2003.”
Rughani attributed the bank’s good performance to its good and focused
management team, the overwhelming support and loyalty of the bank’s customers
and the overall good corporate governance. “Good performance and good governance
reinforce each other,” he said.
The bank, according to Rughani, disbursed a total of Tsh. 25 billion to both
farmers and Small and Medium Enterprises last year which accounted for more than
10 per cent of its total loans and advances portfolio.
As part of the 2005 plans, the bank plans to issue their own local bond in the
market, which will be listed at the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. The bank has
further pledged to go on supporting the key economic growth areas which include
agriculture and SMEs.
Bankers given
training to prevent fraud
By Angela Mazula
In order to improve bankers’ technical know-how to prevent financial crimes, a
workshop organised by the Tanzania Institute of Bankers (TIB) will be conducted
next week.
According to Dr. Colman Riwa, Director of TIB, bankers need to be given adequate
training on how to detect and control fraud and financial crimes.
Speaking in Dar as Salaam this week, Riwa said that TIB will conduct a one-week
workshop.
He said: “The workshop will help the participants to gain the knowledge which
will enable them to identify bank frauds, foreign exchange frauds and carry out
effective investigation.”
SIDO
exhibition opens next month
Nestory Ngwega, Tanga
Tanga municipality will next month host a trade exhibition organised by the
Small Industry Development Organisation (SIDO) for the Northern Zone regions.
The exhibition opens its doors on March 17 and will be open for the public for
one week at Tangamano grounds.
According to Tanga Regional SIDO Manager, Suleiman Mtani, the exhibition draws
together entrepreneurs from Tanga, Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara.
In addition, entrepreneurs from the Juakali group from Kenya would participate,
stretching the number of participants to more than 300.
Mtani said that many businesspeople have good quality goods but face the problem
of marketing the products. The exhibition is an opportunity for people in the
sector to showcase their products.
He therefore called on all Tanga entrepreneurs to use the opportunity to display
their goods and secure future markets for the purpose of increasing the volume
of their business.
The exhibition is an annual event. Last year it was held in Arusha Region.
District
Council issues loans to locals
By Beldina Nyakeke, Musoma
A total of 181 production groups have borrowed Tsh. 59,345,000 from
Musoma District Council towards various projects, including sale of cereals,
vegetables and fruits, weaving and pottery, sale of fish and running shops.
The council’s Acting Director, Elizabeth Bwana said this when presenting an
implementation report of the sector’s enhancement to the Regional Enhancement
Council.
She added that 19 villages in Musoma District have established special funds to
help children living in difficult conditions worth Tsh. 1,193,500.
The District Council, she said, intends to increase the number of dispensaries.
BoT figures
for November out
By Timothy Kitundu
The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has said that in the financial year ending October
2004, the growth of money supply picked up but remained within the targeted path
of 20-24 per cent for the 2004/05 financial year, compared to September 2004.
The growth rate of extended broad money (M3) stepped up to 24.0 per cent from
21.7 per cent in September 2004, while that of broad money supply (M2), picked
up to 21.2 per cent from 20.0 per cent in the same period.
The BoT monthly economic review for November 2004 says that the increase in
money supply was predominantly manifested in foreign currency deposits (FCD) and
currency in circulation (CC).
“Currency circulation was largely associated with export and travel proceeds,
inflow of foreign direct investments and foreign exchange for small and medium
enterprises (SMEs),” the review stresses.
The increase in currency in circulation reflects withdrawals of cash for crop
purchases following a relatively good harvest.
The review says, as a result of these developments, the proportion of FCD to M3
rose from around 27.5 per cent in October 2003 to 29.2 per cent in October 2004,
while that of CC rose from 22 per cent to 23 per cent in the same period.
According to the review, during October, M3 increased by about Tsh. 60 billion
compared to an increase of Tsh. 80 billion in the preceding month. M3 manifests
a moderate seasonal increase each October as seasonal receipts from exports and
travel flow into banks in form of FCD.
This year though, the review says, the peak of FCD flows seem to have happened
earlier, thus explaining the large increase in M3 in September, relative to
October.
M2 expanded by nearly Tsh. 43 billion as it was in September with most of the
increase emanating from currency in circulation and savings deposits.
To a large extent, the increase in currency in circulation mirrors the high
withdrawals of government deposits in respect of domestic obligations.
Public alerts
PCB of malpractices
By Danny Eliah, Dodoma
The Prevention of Corruption Bureau (PCB) in Dodoma Region received a total of
106 complaints in 2004.
Last year, four suspects were caught and arraigned in court to answer charges
involving corruption.
Talking to The Express last week PCB Director for Dodoma Region, Felix Kailu
said a judgement has been given in one of the four cases, the rest are still in
progress.
Departments of district councils, including the Village Executive Officers (VEO)
and Ward Executive Officers (WEO) topped the list of departments that had
received complaints of bribery.
Kailu said Dodoma Rural District has received the most number of complaints (29)
from the public.
Kailu emphasised that PCB will continue to deal seriously with corruption and
bribery, even down to the lowest level. The complaints exemplify that bribes are
common in VEOs and WEOs.
He further said because of the coming general elections, PCB will be extra
vigilant to ensure that no misbehaviour takes place.
PCB is providing corruption awareness education in primary schools, secondary
schools and all colleges in Dodoma Region.
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