Opinion
Analysis
Will voting
make a difference?
There remains a good eight months before polling day, but with the announcement
last week of the exact date for the general elections and the period set for
campaigning, it is appropriate to ponder over what might be the outcome October
30.
First things first: How many will actually vote? From a global perspective, a
low turn out on election day has been one of politicians’ worst fears. In the
forthcoming general elections in Britain for example, experts predict that the
turnout will be the lowest in almost a century.
A low turnout is particularly worrying for the ruling party, as many of its
potential supporters might decide to stay at home and not take part in the
elections, thinking that there is always someone else that will cast a vote for
the party. This scenario opens the door for smaller parties to gain seats in
Parliament.
Secondly, will the election be free and fair? This is perhaps the biggest worry.
The last two elections have been accused of irregularities and there is little
that shows that things would be different this time. International observers or
not, elections in this country do have a tendency to unjustifiably favour one
side or the other.
These are challenges for all candidates participating in the elections. If the
elections turn out to be a success, it is necessary that the concerned parties
produce election manifestos containing relevant and practical solutions for the
country. Solutions that prospective voters can feel will make a difference in
their lives.
Also important is that the parties do set out different strategies, i.e. not
just saying things will improve if you vote for us, but give us concrete
examples of exactly why their solutions are the best.
But the biggest challenge for the parties is to convince us, the electorate, to
go and vote in the first place. What are their arguments for why voting will
change our lives for the better?
The parties cannot give us guarantees for the future. That is not their job. The
parties cannot through material gifts persuade us to vote for them. That is pure
corruption. The parties cannot intimidate other parties in their quest for
leadership positions. That is unfair play.
But the parties are in the position to give us a fair debate and choice to pick
for ourselves which party to support, with the help of a free and independent
media. That is their job and something they should value.
Our need of
threats
The bird flu epidemic follows the same pattern as other pandemics. It is yet
another confirmation that we are living in a dangerous world.
Governments should consider stockpiling vaccines against bird flu now in
preparation for a pandemic, the World Health Organisation was reported saying
last week. A serious global outbreak of the virus among human beings is becoming
more likely, according to a report from the organisation which is expected to be
published next month.
At the moment it is the bird flu. No long ago it was SARS. Before that we had
mad cow disease, and before that Ebola. Every time fear is activated quickly and
irrationally. Backed by the media, different worst case scenarios are created.
Experts claim that we are facing a world wide pandemic, yet order us to keep
calm. So why the worry?
The causes for a pandemic are mainly two. Firstly, infections that emerge from
unbalance between man and environment, secondly infections presented as
infectious matters that spread from human to human or from animal to human.
Socially there is a great difference between the two. The first points to a
system, an order that can be controlled. The second point to a more
uncontrollable phenomenon.
But independent of the explanations, pandemics tend to follow the same pattern.
Doctors find a few suspected cases, the disease is traced to a source, and
everything seems to be under control, yet not. The officials’ first reaction is
passivity. The situation become uncontrollable, many fall ill and die before
anyone acts and informs the public. Silence then turns into cries for help.
There is something significant in the way, at present, worst case scenarios tend
to occupy our minds. It is as if they catch the fear that we might live in a
dangerous world, build on hidden threats in the forms of weapons of mass
destruction, nuclear weapons, radiation, viruses, resistant bacteria and secret
diseases. As a result, the modern world’s rationality and control no longer look
viable. And for infections, there is no cure. You can prevent with information,
hygiene and clean provisions. When the pandemic strikes we seem rather helpless.
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Mkapa can hinder corrupt presidential
candidates’ dreams
By Evarist Kagaruki
Not long ago, I mentioned in this column that President Benjamin Mkapa’s
successor will most likely come from the ruling party, CCM. This prediction,
which seems to be shared by many people, including (hold your breath) the
Chairman of the Tanzanian Labour Party, who remarked recently that even if all
the opposition parties were to unite and sponsor a single presidential candidate
in the October elections, CMM would still win!
Because CCM was “better placed” than any other political party (or even all the
opposition parties combined) to produce the next president, I said, such
speculations revolved around the ruling party’s presidential aspirants. It is
precisely for that reason that many Tanzanians followed keenly the recent
meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) which was held in
Dodoma last week. The focus was on what the party chairman, President Mkapa, had
to say. This was in view of the widely reported unofficial and dirty campaigns
characterised by “corrupt practices” by certain CCM members believed to be
eyeing the Union presidency. They also wanted to know what action would be taken
by the party against such people.
Reports that some presidential contenders were criss-crossing the country
covertly and openly soliciting support among the CCM National Congress
delegates, using money as the bait, were held in bad taste by everyone who wants
to see a clean and transparent process of nominating the party’s presidential
candidate. If the CCM chairman was dismayed by those reports, he did not show it
publicly until he delivered his powerful speech when opening the NEC meeting
February 15.
Prior to that meeting, President Mkapa’s silence over the matter confounded many
and even disappointed some of his admirers in and outside his party. While there
was no doubt he did not condone the alleged malfeasance, people still could not
understand why he wasn’t taking action or at least saying a word against it!
There were a lot of doubts as to whether the party’s disciplinary machinery of
which the chairman is in charge was still intact and functional.
Now, the President has strongly spoken against the unauthorised campaigns
conducted by some presidential contenders. He has made his and the party’s
position on this issue clear. In his aforementioned speech before the NEC
members, Mkapa made two important pronouncements, among several others, which
observers say would send an unmistakable message to all in CCM who are nursing
presidential ambitions.
First, he vowed to use his authority to ensure that CCM presidential aspirants
whose integrity was questionable do not get through to the final nomination of
the party’s presidential candidate.
Second, he said that the laid down democratic procedure and the criteria set to
sieve CCM presidential aspirants will be strictly followed to make sure that
they get fair and just treatment during the screening exercise, and also that
the country gets a “clean” and competent president. Additionally, the President
let it be known that he will not support any aspirant before May 4 when the
National Conference picks the party candidate. This is no small talk!
Many people seem to take the President seriously on his strong statements. But
there are some who doubt whether those determined to go to Ikulu “at any cost”
would be deterred by the party chairman’s speech from continuing with their
campaigns. There are suggestions in some quarters that those campaigns could
stop if only the President ordered the security services and the PCB (Prevention
of Corruption Bureau) to arrest the erring politicians’ agents who are believed
to be moving around with hefty purses to bribe the National Congress delegates.
This is quite an appealing suggestion, especially because these agents are said
to be well known. Their apprehension could make a difference. Personally, I
believe that President Mkapa, aided by the big powers of his two offices (the
government and the party) and his moral authority can, if he is willing,
terminate these unofficial (presidential) campaigns and ditch the presidential
ambitions of those CCM politicians whose race to State House is frightening.
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