Opinion
Analysis
Opinion polls
without substance?
Every other day there seem to be a new opinion poll published, telling us who we
favour to be the next president and MPs in Parliament. Polls are indeed
necessary but should not be taken at face value.
Polls do give an indication of what is yet to come. No matter what politicians
say in order to devalue the meaning of polls and surveys (that is, if they are
behind), the closer the elections, the more accurate the predictions.
Allowing opinion polls is also a means for democracy to take its course. It is a
sign of a healthy and lively democracy when people are allowed to air their
views without restrictions. Polls encourage people to ponder over the coming
elections and can give rise to debates and discussions on a local level as to
what direction the country is heading.
All this sounds very good. But, to fulfill the above mentioned, there need to be
some criteria in place. When the results of a survey are being published it is
important for the public to be informed on how many took part in the survey and
how the survey was conducted. More importantly, it is imperative that the
questions asked are also mentioned.
The difference between asking 100 people: Would you support CCM in the coming
elections? or asking 1,000 people: ‘Who do you think will win the coming
presidential election’?, or asking 5,000 people: ‘Who would you vote for in the
coming presidential elections?’ is immense.
Words and numbers do matters, and particularly so when put in a question for
people to answer objectively.
A healthy democracy moreover, allows for more than one polling institute to
survey the public’s views. Different institutes will reach different results and
it is important that the public can see that polls are predictions and nothing
else.
Over the weekend, a survey conducted by REDET was published, pitting Jakaya
Kikwete as the most likely winner of the presidential elections, ahead of Salim
Ahmed Salim. It makes for interesting and exciting reading.
Yet, much of the reports in the media lacked the information which are necessary
for the polls to make any sense. Either REDET failed to give out all the facts
or mistakes which were done by the different media.
For polls to be of any use in the run-up to the election, we need reports that
are accurate and which add something to the debate.
CUF
claims should not be ignored
Last week the National Chairman of CUF, Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba disclosed serious
allegations against CCM, saying that CCM is behind a conspiracy that denied over
30,000 CUF members to register in Zanzibar.
This is a very serious and sensitive issue, which needs careful scrutiny by the
Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC). The CUF leader could not just complain of
unfair practices out of nowhere.
There have been a number of cases where irregular registration practices have
been noticed such as the initial refusal by a civic leader to deny CUF Secretary
General, Seif Sharif Hamad from registering on grounds that he was not a
permanent citizen of Zanzibar.
ZEC’s responsibilities include monitoring matters pertinent to elections and
where necessary make adjustments should there be any discrepancies.
In Zanzibar political tension is rising. There is stiff competition among
members of political parties. Unlike in Mainland, people in Zanzibar are
passionate about politics.
CUF’s allegations are shocking and leave people with many questions unanswered.
Why would someone deny people of their constitutional right to register?
Our country adopted a multiparty system in order to expand democracy. Globally
the multiparty system is regarded as a more democratic means to let people
express their choice.
But the future looks rather gloomy. There were several incidents, which marred
the registration exercise in the Isles and that signal a great deal of unrest.
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Hamad’s
saga thwarts registration exercise
By Evarist Kagaruki
The good news to come out of Zanzibar last week was that the
Secretary General of the main opposition Civic United Front (CUF), Seif Sharrif
Hamad, had finally been allowed by the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) to
enrol himself in the permanent voters’ register. Good news because the
consequences of denying Maalim Seif his constitutional right to register as a
voter, were too frightening to contemplate.
Every Tanzanian of average intelligence knows that the move, two weeks ago, by a
local government leader (“Sheha”) at the Mtoni Kidatu registration centre, in
Pemba, was not only wrong, but politically motivated. It was a crooked, frantic
way of trying to use every bad trick in the book to stop Hamad from contesting
the presidency of Zanzibar.
The Zanzibar electoral law stipulates that candidates to the Presidential,
Parliamentary and Zanzibar House of Representatives posts should be registered
as voters. And to register as a voter, a person must have lived in a
constituency for a period of not less than three years continuously.
It defies commonsense that Hamad, who had registered and voted in Zanzibar (at
the same registration centre) in the previous elections of 1995 and 2000 in
which he also contested the Isles presidency, would now be declared “ineligible”
to vote! No one can believe that this was a matter of “innocent
misinterpretation” of the law. And one can not imagine that a “Sheha” would
attempt to block the registration of a person like Hamad without instructions
from above.
But what intrigues many people are the way of thinking of those who conceived
and hatched the whole absurd idea of barring the CUF leader from registering,
believing it could work! Because even assuming the ZEC were so biased against
CUF (which is what many in the party seem to believe), it does not appeal to
commonsense that the Commission would have sanctioned such a preposterous
action.
Personally, I believe that ZEC comprises people of high integrity who know what
their responsibility entails for the destiny of Zanzibar.
The Commission’s ruling in favour of Hamad’s appeal (which he was forced to make
amid all the humiliation by the local leadership), was exactly what many
Tanzanians, irrespective of their political affiliations, had expected. Of
course why the Commission did not intervene immediately the ambiguity about
Maalim Seif’s registration came to their attention, raises many an eyebrow. Many
think that such intervention could have neutralised instantly the political
tensions (and defused the anger and suspicion among the CUF faithful against the
Zanzibar government and ZEC), which arose in the wake of Hamad’s registration
controversy.
Besides, the Commission’s quick intervention could have saved the Zanzibar
government from the terrible damage that this issue had done on its image
internationally. The country’s “aid” donors who might have thought that the
peace accord (Muafaka) between the ruling party, CCM and CUF had improved the
relations between the two rival parties and brought some serenity on the Isles,
must have been greatly disappointed by the Hamad registration episode.
I am referring to the donors because these are the people who had withdrawn all
aid to Zanzibar during the political impasse of that engulfed the country after
the 1995 controversial elections, only to restore it following the Muafaka. The
second reason I am making reference to Zanzibar’s benefactors in connection with
this issue is that President Amani Abeid Karume had won their confidence because
of his good governance, which he needs to maintain in order to continue
receiving more aid.
However, in the face of the Hamad registration controversy, it is hard for the
donors and friends of Zanzibar to continue believing that Zanzibaris have
learned their lessons from the past and would now be concentrating on the agenda
for peaceful, free and fair elections this time round.
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