Opinion
Analysis
British
elections hardly raise an eyebrow
It is difficult these days to read or hear any thoughtful analysis or comments
on the political landscape, both domestic and international, as long as it does
not revolve around CCM and their presidential candidate election. Still dealing
with post-Kikwete-victory coverage, there is not much space left for other
political stories.
And it should be said that CCM and Kikwete is doing a good job, capitalizing on
the platform the media is giving them, and the media in turn is rather happy
that the election campaigns have finally kick-started.
Therefore, it was perhaps not that surprising that the British general elections
passed by without much notice. Compared to the American presidential elections
last year, which received unprecedented coverage, the British elections seem to
have raised little interest.
When George W. Bush got re-elected, almost everyone had a view to express,
either for or vehemently against him and his policies. But for a country like
Tanzania, who is much more dependent on and in direct contact with Britain than
the US, following the British elections with the same enthusiasm would have made
more sense.
It was a bittersweet victory for the Labour Party and Tony Blair. It was the
first time a Labour Government got re-elected for a third term, but the party
had their majority in the House of Commons slashed by more than a half.
What is interesting, from a Tanzanian perspective, is how Blair will cope with
the difficulties of passing proposals in parliament. Many of Blair’s sternest
critiques, like Robin Cook, the former Foreign Secretary and Clare Short, the
former International Development Secretary, have been very outspoken in their
views on the British involvement in Iraq and Blair’s foreign policies in
general. It will be very interesting to see how Blair will handle those voices
in the future.
Blair was, when he was elected very inexperienced with foreign policies, but had
as his mission to gain the vote of middle England; create a New Labour. He knew
very little on how to return Britain to the heart of European politics, let
alone how to deal with the rest of the world.
Therefore it has been surprising to see how involved Blair has became in foreign
polices; from British troop’s employment in Sierra Leone, the war in Iraq to
chairing the Commission for Africa. Blair’s decision seems to be directed with a
great deal of moral conviction. He once said that Africa was a scare on the
consciousness of the world, and that it was his mission to make Africa a better
place. A strong statement indeed!
What Blair’s third term is going to unfold, we are yet to find out.
Bravo Kikwete,
but it’s not an easy job
Last week the Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Jakaya
Kikwete was formally endorsed as CCM’s sole presidential candidate for the
October 30 elections.
It is indeed a momentous victory for CCM to get an “electable” flag bearer who
possibly might lead the party to victory.
Kikwete’s nomination is also a personal victory, for which we have reasons to
congratulate him bearing in mind that his quest for presidency had been there
for long.
Many people gathered at Jangwani Grounds in Dar es Salaam on Saturday where CCM
candidates were introduced at a special concert, organized by Tanzania One
Theatre. It was a clear manifestation that Kikwete is liked among people,
especially the youths.
Kikwete’s victory is also a big challenge to the opposition parties and CUF in
particular. But we believe that the opposition are having an up-hill task to
up-root CCM from power.
Although the multiparty system was adopted in 1992 and elections subsequently
followed, still the parties have not been fully recognized and accepted by a
majority of Tanzanians. Many people perceive the system as chaotic.
Of course the multiparty system has been widely thought of as a more democratic
way for people to choose the leaders of their preference, but in Tanzania many
are yet to be convinced.
The political activities of the parties largely depend on the subsidies they
receive from the government; arguably the funds are inadequate.
Kikwete will have to sustain the legacy of the Third Phase Government in his
efforts to fight corruption and reiterating the rule of law and at the same time
fight poverty.
back
to headline
The way forward for an
exciting election
Last week, the CCM National Conference completed the process of nominating the
party’s presidential candidate in the forthcoming general elections. The process
was democratic, transparent and peaceful. Foreign Minister, Jakaya Mrisho
Kikwete was nominated as the party’s flag bearer in the presidential race. He
deservedly won the nomination with a landslide. His victory was expected by
many, given his popularity across the country.
The Express-Majira survey conducted countrywide last year predicted Kikwete to
be the next president – a prediction complemented by the BBC and REDET opinion
polls several weeks ago. Long before a single party caucus ballot had been cast,
the Tanzanian press had already anointed him the front runner for the CCM
presidential nomination.
In Western countries, where opinion polls in the run-up to elections matter a
lot and are conducted as a matter of tradition, polls are used as reliable
indicators of the mood of the electorate and as pointers to the direction of the
election. Here at home, we are also starting to learn how important opinion
polls are in our elections, if the Kizota experience is anything to go by.
Kikwete’s “electability” was not the artificial creation of the media, as some
people might think. Journalistic pundits are capable of imposing some opinion on
the public regarding a certain politician, but they can not make an unpopular
politician popular! Kikwete is unquestionably popular and therefore electable
even from the perspective of the opposition. He got himself cast in that image
largely because of his solid credentials, which we all are fully aware of.
As I have argued previously in this column, the focus of the whole nation in an
election year like this, since the advent of a multiparty system, has always
been on the CCM candidate. The reason is simply that this is the party that was
most likely to produce the president of the United Republic of Tanzania. Except
for Zanzibar, where political competition between CCM and the main opposition
Civic United Front (CUF) is almost level and the results of an election
unpredictable, Tanzania’s opposition generally is too weak to beat CCM at the
polls.
It is for this reason that observers give CCM and Kikwete an easy win in
October. And I bet they are right! With the resounding victory at the nomination
at Kizota, the CCM presidential candidate has got off to an impressive start. A
good day starts with an early sunshine, as they say.
However, some observers who see politics as a game of chance think that with the
nomination of Kikwete, CCM has just began the long, arduous journey to the
“uncertain end”. They contend that although the ruling party and their candidate
stand a better chance to win, they should not think that the contest is going to
be a walk over.
Their script: From now on, all Kikwete’s political rivals in the opposition are
going to take direct aim at him, rather than scatter their fire power against
one another; meaning, the main opposition parties are going to unite and
nominate a credible candidate who will pose a real challenge to CCM. Your guess
about who that candidate might be is as good as mine!
Another strand of this script is that the CCM candidate will now come under
close scrutiny for the first time in his political career, along with other
presidential contenders. What is being suggested here is that all the
presidential candidates should be made to appear on a variety of network
television and radio programmes. These should include face-to-face presidential
debates (some people recommend one debate, others two, to be conducted in both
Kiswahili and English) to explain to the electorate who they are; what they
stand for; what their respective political parties’ policies mean to the
Tanzanian people in terms of their hopes and aspirations; and why they think
they are the right candidates for the presidency.
Those who think on those lines believe that through such scrutiny (some call it
“competence test”) the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses will be laid bear.
This, they say, could swing voters and tip the scales on the polling day.