Opinion

• Critics of Synovate opinion survey are wrong
  

Critics of Synovate opinion survey are wrong

By Evarist Kagaruki

The recent opinion survey in the country by the Synovate (formerly Steadman Group) indicated that President Jakaya Kikwete was the most popular politician. The study revealed that he was the most preferred presidential candidate who would garner 75 per cent of the votes in the elections to be held later this year. The polls also showed how other prospective presidential candidates and political parties would fare in the elections, as well as the popularity of parliamentarians. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi was named as the most popular political party in the country.
Quite naturally, these findings did not please those about whom the predictions were negative. So, it is not surprising at all that some officials in the opposition have strongly disputed the opinion poll results. I would be confounded if they had received the outcome of the survey differently. But Synovate did not conduct the opinion poll just to please or annoy anyone. Their mission was straight forward: to carry out a scientific research and gauge people’s preferences as the nation prepares for the forthcoming elections.
It is the same kind of mission already undertaken by REDET whose opinion surveys have always been called in question by those in the opposition because they indicated (consistently) predictions fovourable to the ruling party and President Kikwete. Because of such opinion poll outcomes, which portrayed Kikwete and his party as the leading political entities in popularity in the country, REDET is regarded by its critics as a “propaganda tool” of CCM. And now, not surprisingly, Synovate faces similar preposterous accusations.
I do not believe myself that such credible institutions, which are recognized and respected internationally, could invest their precious time, resources and energy (both physical and mental) in an exercise aimed to ostensibly manipulate people’s opinions to serve the narrow interests of the ruling party! Moreover those disputing the opinion polls have not given plausible reasons for alleging that such polls do not reflect the true (political) situation on the ground.
I have read, for example, a suggestion by one prominent opposition leader that the Synovate poll was a “tactic cleverly contrived to boost the incumbent, President Kikwete’s chances for a second term”. He did not substantiate his allegation.
There was also another interesting comment by a leader of a certain opposition party that the Synovate opinion survey results reflect how the ruling party “uses outdated propaganda style for the forthcoming election”. This argument was just as hollow! People who are serious in analyzing opinion surveys expect those disputing them to say, in concrete terms, why they have strong reservations over such polls, rather than use the findings to express their anti-CCM sentiments.
The problem with critics of the Synovate and REDET opinion polls is that they don’t like to look at reality in the face. And the reality is that the ruling party and President Kikwete are increasingly becoming popular (despite their many shortcomings) because the opposition is progressively weakening. The opposition has failed to prove it can produce an alternative government. The major opposition parties are unable to unite and cannot compete with CCM in mobilizing grassroots support.
The civic elections held late last year, in which CCM won almost 90 percent of the votes were a litmus test of the strength and popularity of the ruling party, and of the corresponding weakness and unpopularity of the opposition. So, in the absence of a strong and credible opposition, people will always tend to stick to the only choice available, which is CCM – a party whose flag bearer in the October presidential election happens to be the popular Jakaya Kikwete. The Synovate and REDET surveys only help to confirm this reality.


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